News from Fantasy Moguls

18 articles

28 August 2008 8:53 AM, PDT

Greetings, Moguls! Welcome to the Tip of the Week. With many October selections costing upwards of $25 in Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues, I thought it'd be prudent to take a look at some mid-range values for the rest of the season. The kings of this category would easily be The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor and Pineapple Express, neither of which would have cost you more than $20. Those flicks, alas, are already off the table — although I'd wager that many of you put one or both on your August-October slate. Before you go and drop another $37 (or $27 in Box Office Moguls) on High School Musical 3, though, take a look at these decent values in the middle of the price list. After all, you can't fill out an entire slate if you only pick the most expensive options. I've got six Ultimate values, and six...

Mister Informative

27 August 2008 4:56 PM, PDT

The end of August is a dumping ground for marginal movies that are, in many cases, barely worthy of release. Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer once made friends on "the island of misfit toys," but not even Rudolph would pay to see any of the "misfit movies" that are opening Labor Day weekend. I am putting my money on a third consecutive weekend win for Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) with another excellent hold. With Ben Stiller, Robert Downey Jr., Jack Black and Tom Cruise all continuing to generate laughs, the Stiller-directed satire may have just enough juice to win another weekend with a three-day of $11 million-$13 million (my prediction is $12.5 million) and a four-day of $14.5 million-$16.5 million (I am calling for $15.75 million). That would push its U.S. cume to $86 million-$88 million. At this pace, Thunder appears headed for $115 million-$120 million domestic.

Steve Mason

26 August 2008 8:38 AM, PDT

Greetings to all citizens, denizens and tourists of the Fantaverse, and welcome once again to Bard's Eye View, your virtual laboratory where we dissect, vivisect and analyze down to the molecular level, the latest wide-release films that germinate their way into theaters. Much like some microscopic organisms, some films are lethargic specimens with absolutely no signs of intelligence or cellular activity. Others show great powers of adaptation, insinuating their way into our lives and making us talk about them without really realizing why. Just don't get too close to the latest Friedberg/Seltzer film, that stuff is lethally radioactive and has a half-life of at least two months. (Wink.)

Shrykespeare

22 August 2008 11:02 PM, PDT

Steve Mason is now on Facebook. Sunday 8:30 a.m. (Pacific): On Friday night I reported that The House Bunny (Sony) had won the Friday box-office race, but that Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) would win the weekend, and that is exactly the way it played out. The Anna Faris PG-13-rated comedy was down almost 12 percent from its $5.92 million Friday for $5.25 million on its second day of release, and it will likely hit $15.1 million for the 3-day. That is well above industry expectations for the modestly budgeted, Under 25 Females-geared movie.

Steve Mason

19 August 2008 10:49 PM, PDT

Steve Mason is now on Facebook. There are four new wide releases this week, but only of them is likely to top $10 million for the traditional 3-day weekend. The Jason Statham vehicle Death Race (Universal) seems to be getting some traction in industry tracking, although a huge breakout opening is unlikely. Instead, the Paul W.S. Anderson-directed action pic will likely open with $13 million-$16 million. I suspect this movie, also starring Oscar nominee Joan Allen (The Contender) and Golden Gobe winner Ian McShane (Deadwood), will be enough to out-pace holdover Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount), which will probably dip 40 percent-45 percent from its opening weekend.

Steve Mason

19 August 2008 9:19 AM, PDT

Greetings to Fantaversians young and old, and welcome back to Bard's Eye View, where I, like many guys my age, am 39. Yes, that's right, it was my birthday this past Sunday, which means I am now less than one year away from the big 4-0. (Just one John McCain joke out of any of you whippersnappers, and I swear to Jeebus I will whack you with the nearest blunt object that presents itself! Or I'll just sic Donnie Wahlberg, who, in an amazing bit of coincidence, was born on exactly the same day as me, on you. Or possibly Robert De Niro or Sean Penn, who were also born on Aug. 17. Don't piss us off, is all I'm saying.) (Wink.)

Shrykespeare

15 August 2008 12:18 AM, PDT

The certain $500 million domestic box office take of The Dark Knight has moved Warner Bros. past Paramount/DreamWorks in the 2008 market share race, and, with Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince set for November, the studio seemed a lock to sail past Sony's 2006 domestic box office record of $1.71 billion. The 2008 release schedule got a major shake-up on Thursday, however, as Warner Bros. shifted Half-Blood Prince to July 17 next summer. Warner Bros. still seems likely to be Hollywood's No. 1 studio for this year, edging Paramount/DreamWorks, and they seem destined to post at least the second-best all-time annual domestic haul with something over $1.6 billion. And, as the studio continues to juggle its release schedule, it is not inconceivable that Warner Bros. could still top the Sony record, even without HP6.

Steve Mason

14 August 2008 12:22 AM, PDT

Steve Mason is now on Facebook. Sunday 8:30 a.m. (Pacific): The DreamWorks/Paramount comedy Tropic Thunder received a nice 17 percent bump from Friday's $8.2 million and should finish the weekend with about $26 million according to studio estimates. That means that the Ben Stiller-directed movie satire has actually scored a better three-day take than last weekend's R-rated Pineapple Express (Sony), which generated $23.24 million Friday-thru-Sunday. There was clearly some concern after Thunder opened with $6.5 million Wednesday and dipped to $4.5 million on Thursday, far behind Pineapple's $12 million Wednesday and $6 million Thursday, but the picture recovered nicely over the traditional three-day. It seems clear now that the Seth Rogen/James Franco comedy was helped by getting a jump on the Beijing Olympics by two days, and the Under 25s that rushed to see the movie are not traditional Olympics fans anyway.

Steve Mason

13 August 2008 7:34 AM, PDT

Greetings, Moguls! October is generally kind of a questionable month to begin with. The big holiday movies don't start appearing until November, and some of the sludge from summer that didn't get sloughed off in August and September frequently spills over into October — I'm looking at you, Beverly Hills Chihuahua. So I would have been worried about October even before I saw the prices in August-October Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues. Holy cow — talk about sticker shock! Some of prices were stunning because they're almost too good to be true: Tropic Thunder, with all its positive buzz, is just $29.

Mister Informative

12 August 2008 6:15 PM, PDT

A well-placed studio source told me this week that there's probably only one "big-time" movie remaining on the release schedule for August, and, no surprise, it is Ben Stiller's Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount). With a highly anticipated performance from Iron Man star Robert Downey Jr. and a buzzed-about, scene-stealing turn by Tom Cruise, Thunder has been everybody's sure-fire late summer hit for months, and industry tracking points to an excellent five-day opening, starting Wednesday, and an almost certain weekend win.

Steve Mason

12 August 2008 9:23 AM, PDT

Hello again, and welcome to the one, the only, Bard's Eye View, where I, your scholarly visionary, look down from my high remove to cast my epicanthic eye on the biggest films that Hollywood has to offer. It has been a record-breaking summer, with many successes, a few failures, thankfully not as many "Parts 2" or "Parts 3" (like we had in spades last year), and one ginormous mega-success that will be talked about for years to come. (And no, I'm not talking about Sex and the City, nimrod.) (Wink.)

Shrykespeare

8 August 2008 10:18 PM, PDT

Friday 10:00 p.m. (Pacific): The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) has battled back from a tough Wednesday and Thursday to score a photo-finish win over Sony's Pineapple Express on Friday. My sources are projecting $7.8 million for the Caped Crusader vs. $7.65 million for the Judd Apatow-produced cannabis comedy. The big news from this is that Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins sequel will score a staggering fourth consecutive weekend win, with something in the range of $26.52 million, compared to $22.95 million or so for Express. This has been an exceedingly tough week to make accurate projections. A megahit in its third week, a weed-whacked comedy with a strong R-rating opening on a Wednesday, a midweek opening for a "girl power" sequel and the added dynamic of the start of the Beijing Olympics have all conspired to make forecasting difficult. There is no question, however, that Tdk has "come from behind" for.

Steve Mason

8 August 2008 8:10 AM, PDT

Greetings ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to your latest plunge into the meanders of theatrical limited releases. The indie game can be very frustrating when you are a film buff not living next to the cinema that plays the film you want to see. With most of the films I discuss, if you do not live in a major U.S. city (meaning, most of the time, New York City or Los Angeles), then you often have to be patient if you'd like to see them. And that doesn't even take into account the frustration of living outside the United States and knowing that you have almost no chance of seeing this or that independent film on the big screen one day.

Indie Jones

7 August 2008 10:32 AM, PDT

Thursday 10:00 p.m. (Pacific): Pineapple Express (Sony), which opened to a spectacular $12.15 million on Wednesday, suffered its expected Thursday buzz-kill, falling about 50 percent according to preliminary numbers. I am projecting an estimated $6.25 million for day two of the Seth Rogen/James Franco marijuana-fueled comedy, for a pre-weekend tally of $18.4 million. The megahit The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) appears to have received a slight uptick from Wednesday, when Males Under 25 rushed out to see the Judd Apatow-produced Sony comedy. The Christopher Nolan-directed Batman Begins sequel scored an estimated $5.35 million on Thursday, up about 5 percent from Wednesday. This sets up a heated battle for the traditional three-day weekend box office crown.

Steve Mason

7 August 2008 9:22 AM, PDT

Greetings, Moguls! Welcome to the first Tip of the Week of the new August-October season. In this installment, I'm evaluating August releases to help you get off to a great start with your new slate. After all, you definitely don't want to put yourself in a hole right out of the gate. I've analyzed all four remaining August weekends, and I've found a stud, a dud, and a wild card for each. Before I get too much further, let me apologize for my tardiness. This column was originally supposed to appear last week, but Internet malfunctions in my neck of the woods made accessing any website — except, oddly enough, Yahoo! Sports — impossible. Remember that scene at the beginning of The Incredibles where Mr. Incredible struggles with a clip-on microphone? It felt like that.

Mister Informative

5 August 2008 5:37 PM, PDT

Whereas The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) was an underdog to win last weekend versus The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal), I am installing the sequel to Batman Begins as the betting favorite to win both the traditional three-day weekend and the Wednesday-through-Friday five-day frame — although it could be close. Two new movies are opening Wednesday (Aug. 6) in the hopes of getting a jump on the Friday night Opening Ceremonies of the Summer Olympic Games in Beijing. NBC's prime time coverage over the next three weeks will smartly feature many of the high profile swimming events, including those featuring Michael Phelps, and lots of gymnastics coverage, with Shawn Johnson's pursuit of the Women's All-Around medal, but the Olympics have begun to increasingly skew 25 Plus. Given that, both Sony and Warner Bros. have picked a good spot for their respective releases.

Steve Mason

5 August 2008 9:30 AM, PDT

Greetings all, and welcome to the latest issue of Bard's Eye View. Instead of the usual repartee that I dispense in my opening paragraph, I have some truly exciting news to impart. My very own website, dedicated to reviewing the latest films, is now up and running! Though the names of the reviewers may not be familiar, I can assure you, every single one of them is a veteran Fantasy Moguls player, including my fellow columnists Indie Jones and Mister Informative. We will do our very best to keep you abreast of the latest films, gracing the Web with our myriad and unfettered opinions.

Shrykespeare

1 August 2008 10:29 PM, PDT

Friday 9:00 p.m. (Pacific): The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) has met his match. Brendan Fraser’s The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) has scored an excellent $16.5M opening day. That is stronger than the original Mummy’s $14.45M first day in 1999, but shy of the $23.38M opening day scored by The Mummy Returns in 2001. The Mummy 3 seems headed for a decent $43.5M 3-day opening, slightly below industry expectations. Tomb of the Dragon Emperor marks the all-time 2nd-best opening for actor Brendan Fraser, trailing only The Mummy 2. All-time Top 5 Brendan Fraser Openings 1. The Mummy Returns — $68.13M opening 2. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $43.5M opening (estimate) 3. The Mummy — $43.36M opening 4. Journey To the Center of the Earth - $21M opening 5. George of the Jungle — $16.54M opening

Steve Mason

18 articles